In terms of future climate change, Denmark is a robust country. This is primarily due to a long tradition of legislation that prevents new building development in river valleys, along coastlines and in forests. Agricultural land is well-drained and many farmers are able to irrigate in dry periods. Moreover, the Danish population is aware of the risks and potential consequences of future extreme weather events, and Denmark already has systematic warning systems.

Projected climate change in Denmark
The trends in future climate change are difficult to assess in advance. The basis for assessing the increased greenhouse effect is also uncertain for several reasons. An important source of uncertainty about the future climate arises from the lack of knowledge about future global emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances that affect the climate. Moreover, the sensitivity of the climate system to these greenhouse gases is uncertain.

In cooperation with the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and the Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie in Hamburg, the Danish Climate Centre (DKC) at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) has carried out global and regional calculations for several internationally recognised future greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenarios. Analyses with global and regional climate models show the following general changes for the climate in Denmark in the period 2071-2100, compared with the period 1961-1990:

• A rise of 3-5°C in the annual mean temperature, depending on the chosen scenario for emissions of greenhouse gases. Greatest warming at night and no major difference between the increase in summer and winter. Warming leads to fewer days with frost and snow and fewer days with snow cover. Average snow cover decreases to about 25% of present-day values.
• An increase of 10-40% in winter precipitation and a reduction of around 10-25% in summer precipitation. A clear tendency towards more episodes with very heavy precipitation, particularly in autumn, and lengthy dry periods, especially in the summer.
• A tendency towards more frequent westerly winds and a slight eastward shift of the storm tracks over the North Atlantic, which will give a small increase in storm activity over Denmark and adjacent waters. On this basis, calculations with storm surge models show that the maximum sea level during more extreme events could be 5-10% higher than today (i.e. about 0.3m on the Danish west coast). . In addition to this is the global rise in sea level, which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates at between 0.1-0.9m over the current level.

An overall increase in runoff of surface water from land has been calculated. This will mean an increase in runoff of about 10% in the period from December to April, when taking into account the simultaneous effect of increased winter precipitation and more evaporation. More runoff in the entire Baltic region may render surface layers in the inner Danish waters less saline. In combination with changed wind conditions and increased runoff of nutrients, this could present a risk of negative consequences for marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks in the form of oxygen depletion.

“Danish strategy for adaptation to a changing climate”
In moderate climate scenarios, direct climate impacts for Denmark are minor and may be countered by suitable ongoing adaptation efforts. Overall, estimates indicate that it will be an advantage to conduct long-term planning and keep to appropriate safety margins. This involves identifying areas of society which require short-term decisions, while also improving the basis for less urgent decisions. The strategy also points out that extreme changes in the climate could be the cause of unexpected future climate developments in Denmark. Local decision-makers are being encouraged to incorporate climate change in all current planning and maintenance decisions.

The government’s climate change adaptation strategy is based on three climate scenarios: A2, B2 and the EU2C scenario.  The A2 and B2 scenarios have been prepared by the UN climate panel (IPCC), and the 2C scenario is based on the EU's objective to prevent global warming from reaching levels of more than 2°C above the pre-industrial temperature.

The Danish Meteorological Institute has scaled the four scenarios down to local conditions and, on this basis, has prepared the table given below on climate change in Denmark in the period 2071-2100. The data on the A1B-scenario are calculated using a different modelling system:


The table shows the calculated Danish climate change impacts relative to the period 1961-1990 for all four climate scenarios.

The uncertainty of the temperature calculations is 1.5ºC for the A2 and B2 scenarios, and 0.7ºC for the EU2C scenario. This means that there is a 90% probability that temperature increases in the three scenarios will be between 0.7ºC and 4.6ºC in the period 2071-2100.

More extreme weather
The four scenarios (A1B, A2, B2, and EU2C) predict more extreme weather in Denmark. The table below shows indicators of weather extremes for the three scenarios.



The table shows selected extreme weather indicators for the four climate scenarios. The figures show the differences between the periods 2071-2100 and 1961-1990. The last column shows the models’ present value as the average between the two present-value simulations in the study. The present-value results are not completely identical, with the measured values for the period 1961-1990, but are fairly consistent with these.